我国中部年、季平均气温变化的趋势性分析

VARIATION TREND ANALYSIS OF THE ANNUAL AND SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN CENTRAL CHINA

在均一性检验的基础上,选取了我国中部河南、湖北、湖南3省42个气象站的资料,对1961～2005年近地表气温要素变化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明,近50a区域年平均气温呈明显上升趋势,1961～2005年区域年平均气温上升了0.54℃,上升速率为0.12℃/10a。除夏季气温有微弱的下降趋势(降温速率为0.112℃/10a)外,冬、春、秋三季气温均有不同程度的升高,其中冬季升温速率最大为0.286℃/10a,春季次之为0.188℃/10a,秋季最小为0.131℃。但年平均气温、冬季平均气温的上升主要反映在20世纪80年代中期以后;春季升温主要表现在1990～2005年;而秋季则是1970～2005年更为明显。夏季虽然总体上呈现下降趋势,但1985年以后有比较弱的上升趋势;空间上年平均气温区域中部地区的升温速率最为明显,南北次之,西部不明显,甚至有下降趋势;总体上年平均气温湖北上升速率最高0.15℃/10a,其次是河南上升速率0.111℃/10a,湖南最小为0.105℃/10a。周期分析显示区域年平均气温在1990～2000年存在显著的4a左右周期变化;突变检验表明年平均气温在1994年前后经历了一次由冷变暖的明显突变。

Based on the homogeneity test,according to the surface temperature data of 42weather stations in Hena,Hubei and Hunan from 1961to 2005,the time and space evolution characteristics of the surface temperature since 1961were analyzed.The results show that the regional annual average temperature has a rising trend in the past 50a,which increased 0.54℃from 1961to 2005,and the increase rate is 0.12℃/10 a.Except that the summer temperatures have a slight downward trend(the cooling rate is 0.112℃/10a),the temperatures in winter,spring and autumn have rising trend in different degree,0.286℃/10ain winter,0.188℃/10ain spring,and 0.131℃/10ain autumn.The mostly rising period of annual average temperature and the average temperature in winter is since the mid-80sof the last century,in spring is from 1990to 2005,and in autumn is from 1970to 2005.Though the summer average temperature shows a downward trend as a whole,it has a weak upward trend since 1985.The space distribution character of the annual average temperature rising is that the most obvious rising region is the central region,the second is the south and north and it is unobvious in the west,which has a downward trend.Overall,the most rising rate of the annual average temperature is in Hubei,which is 0.15℃/10a,the second is in Henan,which is 0.111℃/10a;and the least is in Hunan,which is 0.105℃/10a.Cycle analysis shows that the regional annual average temperature has a significant cycle of about 4yeas in the period between 1990and 2000.Mutation test shows that the average annual temperature has a obvious mutation from the cold to warm around 1994.