碳足迹及其影响因素分析——基于中部六省的实证

Analysis of Carbon Footprint and Its Influencing Factors——An Empirical Research on Six Provinces in Central

以二氧化碳为主的温室气体导致全球气候变暖已为世界所公认。而能源消费是碳排放的主要来源,因此本文根据碳排放量的基本等式,计算中部六省1995-2007年间的碳足迹,并就经济发展规模对中部六省碳足迹做回归分析,结果显示中部六省的碳足迹与经济发展规模均不表现为环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)的倒"U"型关系,湖南省表现为倒"N"型关系,其余五个省表现出线性正相关关系。同时,利用分解分析方法,计算中部六省碳足迹变化中的人口规模效应、经济规模效应、能源结构效应、能源效率效应,表明中部六省碳足迹的抑制作用主要来自于一次能源效率的提高,但仅依赖能源效率的提高已难以抑制经济发展引起的碳排放的增加,导致中部六省碳足迹自2001年以后均有逐年迅速加深的趋势。

It is generally recognized in the world that Green House Gas with the Carbon Dioxide as the main,induces the Global Warming,Energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions.This paper calculates the carbon footprint of six provinces in central from 1995 to 2007,and does regression analysis between carbon footprint and economic development. The results show that the relation between carbon footprint and economy of six provinces in central was not environmental Kuznets curve as the down 'U'.It is like a down 'N' curve in Hunan province and more like a linear curve in other five provinces.Meanwhile,decomposition analysis is applied to decompose carbon footprint change into personal scale effect,economic scale effect,energy structural effect and energy efficiency effect.It shows that the improvement of energy efficiency is the main restraint to carbon footprint.However,it is difficult to stop carbon emissions caused by economic development only relying on the energy efficiency,resulting in carbon footprint in six provinces in central since 2001 has rapidly deepened.