如何实现碳减排约束下的经济增长——技术进步碳减排效应的理论和实证分析

How to Achiever Economic Growth under the Carbon Emission Restriction——An Empirical Analysis on Manufacturing

本文理论部分是基于新古典经济增长理论框架,分析了碳减排约束下经济增长的瓶颈问题,指出解决此问题应致力于内涵扩张的方式——技术进步。同时将技术进步归纳为跳跃式和持续式两种方式,并分别探讨了这两种方式解决碳减排约束下经济增长瓶颈问题的不同途径。实证部分旨在检验技术进步的实际碳减排效应,以我国制造业为例,采用LMDI法分析了制造业碳排放的影响因素,结果表明由技术进步引起的能源消耗强度降低均对制造业整体及制造业重点减排行业表现出明显的碳减排效应,验证了技术进步作为主要碳减排手段的合理性和必要性。

On the theoretic study part of this paper,the problem about economic improvement under the restriction of carbon emission reduction is been analyzed based on the Neo - classical economic growth theory,and the key to solve the problem is to depend on the technical progress.Then,two ways of technical progress and their effects to solve the problem have been discussed.The empirical analysis on China manufacturing of this paper is focus on the actual effect of carbon emission reduction.The LMDI method is used to analyze the impact factors of the manufacturing carbon emission,and it shows obviously that the reduce of energy intensity caused by technical progress really had been lead to the reduction of carbon emission,both to the total manufacturing and the key carbon emission reduction sectors.So the rationality and necessity of technical progress as an important carbon emission reduction instrument have been proved.