我国各省区CO_2排放状况、趋势及其减排对策

The Status,Trend and Countermeasures of Carbon Dioxide Emission in Provincial Level of China

了解我国各省区CO2排放现状及其成因,是制定CO2减排政策和发展低碳经济的重要依据。本文运用《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》的方法学,对我国各省区从2000年到2007年间由化石燃料消费以及水泥生产过程所产生的CO2排放量进行了核算。在此基础上,分别对各省区的CO2历史累计排放量、人均排放量、排放强度、排放量对GDP的弹性系数、单位工业增加值的排放量等进行了对比分析。研究表明:历年来各省区CO2排放总量排名基本没有变化、煤炭工业对各省区的CO2排放状况有重大影响、经济结构转型较早的省区CO2减排效果较好、一些省区CO2排放总量低但排放趋势却不断恶化、CO2排放的区域转移十分明显。最后,提出了相应的政策建议。

It is very important for the policy making of CO2 emission reduction and the development of low-carbon economy to understand the status and causes of CO2 emissions in provincial level of China.In this paper,we make use of the method of '2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories' to account the CO2 emissions by the fossil fuel consumption and cement production process of the provinces of China from 2000 to 2007.By further study on the accumulative emissions,per-capita emissions,CO2 emission intensity,the elastic coefficient of CO2/GDP and per-industrial value-added emissions,we arrive at some conclusions.First,each province's basic position of the total CO2 emissions almost never changes over years.Second,the coal industry's CO2 emissions have a major impact on the situation of each province.Third,the earlier the economic restructuring of a province occurs,the better the CO2 emission mitigation goes.Fourth,some provinces have lower total amount of emissions,but their emission trends are worse.We also found that the regional transfer of CO2 emissions is obviously.Finally,we put forward some policy suggestions.