中国混合动力公交车发展的经济性对比分析

The Economic Analysis of the Development of HEV Bus in China

混合动力公交车(HEV)在中国的发展可分为研发试制、示范运营、区域推广、大规模应用四个阶段,本文分析并预测了HEV公交车在后三个阶段的全生命周期持有者成本,并与传统公交车(CDB)进行比较。结果表明,示范运营阶段国家目前的补贴不足以弥补HEV比CDB高出的成本;但进入区域化推广阶段以后,HEV的全生命周期成本会比CDB更低。

The development of hybrid electrical vehicle(HEV) in China can be described as four stages as R&D and trial produce,demonstrate operation,regional promotion,and large scale application.This paper analyses and predicts the life cycle cost of HEV in the last three stages,and also compares the cost of HEV with that of the conventional diesel bus(CDB).The result shows that the current subsidy supported by the government cannot cover the cost gap between HEV and CDB in the demonstration operation stage;however the life cycle cost of HEV becomes much lower than CDB as far as HEV reaches the stage of regional promotion.