投资、技术进步、货币供应与中国经济波动

Investment,Technology Progress,Money Supply and Chinese Economic Fluctuation

本文采用1952-2008年的时间序列数据,把产出和投资、技术进步、货币供应纳入一个统一的宏观经济分析框架内,运用ADF检验、Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型(VECM)以及方差分解(VD)等动态计量经济学方法实证检验了投资冲击、技术冲击、货币供应与经济波动之间的相互影响关系。实证检验结果显示:投资冲击和货币供应是我国经济波动的主要原因,其中投资冲击的解释力远大于货币供应,而技术进步对经济波动影响则主要体现为长期和持久效应;短期内,技术冲击对经济波动的影响不显著。此外,我国货币供应外生特征的推论也值得重视。最后,文章就如何实现宏观经济平稳增长提出了简短的对策与建议。

this paper,based on a macro-model in terms of China's total output and investment,technology progress,money supply,using dynamic econometrics of ADF Test,Johansen Cointegration Test,VECM analysis and Variance Decomposition,aims to empirically identify the relationships between investment,technology progress,money supply and Chinese macroeconomic fluctuation with annual national time-series data from 1952 to 2008.The result shows that: the main reason for Chinese economic fluctuation is investment impulse and money supply,especially investment impulse.The effect of Technology progress on economic fluctuation is less prominent In short term but more notable and sustaining in a long term.Otherwise,the externality of money supply should also be paid much attention.At last,this paper gives some brief policy suggestions to realize macroeconomic stability.