实物期权理论在多期项目决策中的应用

Application of Real Option Theory in Multi-year Project Decision-making

在项目投资决策中,由于传统的贴现现金流法(DCF法)忽视了项目在未来的不确定性而可能带来投资损失。作为金融期权在实物资产领域延伸的实物期权理论,考虑了项目未来不确定性可能带来的资产增值机会,避免了因刚性决策而带来的损失,在丰富项目投资决策方法的同时,也为项目投资决策提供了理性和科学的支持。

For the decision making of project investment,traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method ignores the uncertainties of projects in the future which might result in losses for investment capital.Real option theory,serving as the extension of financial option in tangible property,accounts for the opportunity of property value increasing brought by uncertainties of projects in the future,avoids the losses caused by rigid decision making,which enriches the diversity of decision-making model,while provides theoretical and scientific support for project investment strategy.