国有企业、劳动力冗员与就业的增长——1986—1996年期间中国各省的经验

State-Owned Enterprise, Labor Redundancy, and Job Creation

对于决定国有企业劳动力过剩和就业岗位的因素,人们所知甚少。这种知识上的差距使得决策者很难为中国劳动力冗员问题对症下药。本文运用1986—1996年中国各省的数据来对这个问题进行具体的估计。我们发现:(1)释放所有剩余劳动力将会使城市平均失业率升至25%;(2)国有企业劳动力过剩被证明是创造就业岗位的主要障碍;(3)创造就业岗位绩效主要由诸如国有企业劳动力过剩、受教育程度、铁路里程、与港口的距离等结构性交量来解释;(4)相反地,诸如GDP增长率、贸易依存度、外国直接投资(FDI)流入等需求变量的解释力度则不强。

This paper uses a panel data of Chinese provinces between 1986 to 1996 to estimate China's SOE labor redundancy and patterns and determinants of job creation. We find that (i) releasing all redundant workers would raise the average urban unemployment rate to 25%; (ii) SOE labor redundancy proved to be a major impediment for job creation; (iii) patterns of job creation performance were mainly explained by structural variables such as SOE labor redundancy, schooling, railway mileage, and distance to seaport: and (iv) demand variables such as GDP growth rates, trade exposure and FDI inflow, in contrast, did not explain much.