我国棉花生产预警系统的研究和初步应用——中国棉花生产景气指数和中国棉花生长指数

The Forecasting and Warning System of Cotton Production and its Application in China ——China Cotton Production Prospective Index and China Cotton Growth Index

业界认为 ,中国棉花生产景气指数 CCPPI和中国棉花生长指数 CCGI的形成 ,标志着我国棉花生产信息化的建设迈出了可喜的一步 ,为棉业由茫然走向理性 ,由被动应付到主动调控市场提供重大技术支撑。全文分析了《中国棉花生产景气报告》的系统组成 ,介绍了 CCPPI和 CCGI的结构和功能 ,2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 3年实践结果表明 ,两指数对棉花生产、消费、价格、进出口和库存的变化与对气候、生长和产量形成的变化做出积极反应 ,灵敏度高 ,应用效果好 。

The forming of China Cotton Production Prospective Index (CCPPI) and China Cotton Growth Index (CCGI) is regarded as a sign of one delightful step forward the building of China cotton production information system, which offers important technical support for cotton industry changing from bewilderment to rationality and from passively coping with market to active regulating and control. This paper analyses the system composition of the Report on Prosperity of China Cotton Production, and introduces the configuration and function of CCPPI and CCGI. Practices in 2002-2003 indicates that, the two indexes can make positive response to the change of cotton production, consumption, price, imports and exports, storage, and to the change of climate, cotton growth and production forming. They are of high sensitivity and good application effects, and are very welcomed by users.