1999:靠什么来启动中国经济

What to Stimulate China's Economy in 1999

对于表现为“通货紧缩”的中国宏观经济,赤字启动不失为一副猛醒剂。然而近20年来中国经济波动周期及政策效应表明,扩张型的赤字财政政策启动的只能是经济速度,并非经济效益,在经济制度及政治体制踏步的前提下,赤字启动走不出重复建设、恶性腐败及催生通胀的陷阱。因此,从战略上来看,制度改革比赤字启动更富有意义,换言之,以赤字启动来掩盖制度改革将丧失已经不多的改革机会。

As to China's macroeconomy, characterized by monetary deflation, deficit policy is no doubt an efficient measure. However, China's economic fluctuation cycle and policy efficiency of recent twenty years indicate that expanding deficit financial policy can bring about not economic efficiency, but economic speed. Under the condition of unchange in economic and political system, deficit policy can't step out of the trap of repeated construction, corruption and inflation, therefore, from the point of strategy system reform is more significant than deficit policy, in other words, covering system reform through deficit policy will let slip the rare reform opportunities.