经济发展、人口增长与耕地资源动态变化研究──以南京市为例

Economic Development, Population Increasing and Farmland Resources Changes -taking Naning as an example

本文通过对经济发展、投资增长、人口增加与耕地资源动态变化弹性关系的分析，发现１９８０～１９９７年间随着南京市社会经济的不断发展，国民经济的投资报酬率及土地产出率不断提高，据此作者建立了动态回归模型，进一步验证了耕地资源动态变化与经济发展、投资增长、人口增加之间的数量关系，根据这一数量模型还预测了２０００年及２０１０年南京市的耕地资源保有量。通过与耕地资源动态变化一元回归模型预测结果的比较分析，两者相差甚微，故预测结果可信。

Based on the analysis of the relation among economic development, investment increasing, population increasing and quantity changes of farmland in Nanjing, the author found that the investment elasticity of GDP(Gross Domestic Product) and economic product elasticity of farmland were generally increasing. It showed that the investment became more and more important for economic growth, while the economic growth used less and less farmland as nonagricultural land use in Nanjing City. Given that the regression model was established to model the relation changes among farmland quantity, economic development,investment increasing and population increasing. And at last, the author predicted the supply of farmland of 2000 and 2010 by the regression model.