论通信网络之时间形态——非漫射性、非渐进性、非彻底变革性

TIME MORPHOLOGY OF THE COMMUNICATION NETWORKS ——Non diffusivity, Gradual Non advancement, and Non Revolutionary

本文认为通信使用的渗透效应关系决定了其网络的定向性推进而非漫射状；社会任务和需求家庭化共同导致了整个邮电通信系统呈爆发式而非渐进式增长；事实证明通信媒介的更替，则表现出具有革命性，而绝非彻底变革。本文将如上时间形态的诸方面特征聚焦于通信使用者的行为规律上。

Three conclusion emerge from the case of time morphology study. First, communication network don't diffuse and are directed extended in a rational manner. Those studies on the patterns of diffusion are all not accurate( Like pattern of universal diffusion or hierarchical diffusion). The highlight two characteristics(the permeability of the territory, opportunities for communication)which influence the spread of innovation would be dependent on regional potentialities. secondly, new media could develop in spurts rather than gradully. Use of media will eventually approach to households. Administrative sectors and entrepreneurs will be forced by the 'economic benefit' relationship to make new media available to enough potential users at enough places to make their innovations with attractiveness. This kind of spurt development is well suitable for the logistic function appeared by different speeds of diffusion according to different forms of S shaped time distribution functions (speet, flat). And a contraction of time is noted in the development of the other phases (invention, diffusion)of the process. Thirdly, new media are more evolutionary than revolutionary, no matter how revolutionary they appear to be or how revolutionary their promoters say they are, the fact will be turn out to be so. Because this kind of technologies are synergistics rather than competitive, the new media do not immediately supplant old media.