人口结构变迁的经济增长效应分析

The Effects of Demographic Changes on Economic Growth

为了论证人口结构变迁对经济增长的影响,本文在一个索洛模型的基础之上引入人口结构变量,从理论上梳理并建立计量分析模型,应用中国1990~2010年的省级面板数据,分别使用固定效应、混合OLS和工具变量法对人口经济变迁的经济效应进行实证检验。结果表明:劳动年龄人口份额上升、人口抚养比下降是过去20年来中国经济高速增长的重要因素,1990~2010年由人口抚养比下降导致的经济增长约为1.44个百分点,对经济增长的贡献度达到了15%。随着人口日益老龄化,未来的人口结构变迁将会对经济增长产生显著的负面影响,中国应通过提升劳动力的受教育水平、技术进步、人力资源制度建设等来应对未来的人口老龄化问题。

Firstly, this paper introduces demographic variables in Solow Model to analyze its im-pacts on economic growth theoretically .Secondly , this paper collects China ’ s provincial data from 1990~2008 and uses fixed effect model , test effect of demographic change on the economic .We use pooled OLS and instrumental variables method estimate the parameter respectively .The empiri-cal conclusion indicates that increasing of the share of working-age population and decreasing of so- cial dependency ratio are the important factors of China ’ s rapid economic growth in past 20 years. From 1990 to 2008 , the economic growth in China resulting from reduction of population dependency is about 1.44%, and the economic growth contribution of demographic change was 15%.As the population aging in China is gradually deepened , demographic change will bring negative impact on China’ s future economic growth .All of this means that China should adopt an active strategy to address future population aging .