高投资背后的人口结构因素——基于省际动态面板数据模型的研究

The Role of Population Age Structure to High Investment:An Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

文章使用中国1990~2011年的省际面板数据和动态面板GMM估计方法,考察人口年龄结构变化对我国固定资产投资的影响。实证结果表明,少儿抚养比对投资有负向影响,而老年抚养比对投资有正向影响。此外,我国固定资产投资还显示出很强的惯性。在使用不同的计量技术和识别方法之后,以上结果依然稳健。从人口结构角度看,我国高投资、低消费的经济发展特点仍将持续一段时间,这种情况伴随着我国的老龄化进程会逐渐反转。

Using dynamic panel data at the provincial level for the period of 1990 to 2011, this paper studies the impacts of age structure change on China ’ s high investment with different specifications and econometric methods . We find that both young dependency ratio and old dependency ratio have led to China ’ s increasing investment rates , in addition , there is strong habit persistency in investment preference .Our results are robust to alternative econometric methodologies and different estimation methods .From the perspective of demographic structure , we forecast that the high investment level will maintain for a period of time , and gradually reverse in the long run .