当前中亚宗教极端势力特点及发展趋势

Origin of History for Religious Extremist Force in Central Asia

当前中亚宗教极端势力总体呈上升趋势,内生性、政治化倾向明显,宗教极端思想扩散比较突出,但仍未构成地区安全的主要威胁。中亚宗教极端势力形势变化的主因由内因主导变为内因外因共同作用,主要是阿富汗局势、中亚政局变化、中亚国家社会矛盾、西亚北非动荡的影响。未来中亚宗教极端势力活动会随内外形势变化再度达到高值,包括极端思想泛滥、恐怖袭击增多,中亚进入意识形态危机期。中亚宗教极端势力将可能在人员往来、极端思想等方面对我国新疆安全产生不良影响,新疆对中亚的恐怖主义外溢效应也会更加明显。萨拉菲极端思想可能会经中亚进入新疆,与原有极端思想相结合,衍生出新的极端思想。

At present, central-Asia religious extremist force takes on upward turn as a whole, with obvious endogenous and polit- ical trend and marked diffusion in religious extremist thought but fails to pose a main threat to the regional security. The change of situation in central-Asia religious extremist force is mainly due to joint effect of both inner and external factors from inner-factor domination, such as: Afghanistan situation, change in central-Asia political situation, social contradiction in central-Asia countries and unrest in western Asia and northern Africa. In the future, the activities of central-Asia religious extremist forces come to peak a- gain with change in internal and external situation, plaguing extremist thought, increasing terrorist attack and central-Asia in crisis of ideology. The overflowing terrorist effect from central-Asia on Xinjiang also takes more obvious effect. Sarafi extreme thought is likely to enter Xinjiang via central Asia and combine with former extreme thought, from which new extreme idea derives. We need to make clear true nature behind religious extreme thought and consider how to ban religion from being used as theoretic basis for religious ex- treme thought.