摘要
根据马尔可夫链预测的原理和方法，分析了金衢盆地未来洪水的变化趋势。结果表明，该区１９９７～１９９８年出现的洪水属于中等年，而１９９９～２０００年出现的洪水则属于偏小年，近期出现偏大或特大洪水的可能性均比较小。
According to the principle and method of Markov chain forecast, this paper analyses the changeable trend of future flood at Jinqu basin. It has been showed that flood will belong to medium year at Jinqu basin in 1997～1998, to less year in 1999￣2000, and the probability of big or huge flood will be less in several years.
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
北大核心
1997年第S1期88-90,共3页
Areal Research and Development
关键词
洪水
转移概率矩阵
状态概率
马尔可夫链预测
金衢盆地
flood
transferprobability matrix
condition probability
Markov chain forecast
Jinqu basin
