基于知识的新产品风险决策系统

A Knowledge-Based System for Making a Decision aboutNew Product Venture

本文描述一种基于知识开发新产品决策系统。该系统辅助企业（主）或用户决定是否提交资源进入新产品开发的风险中。文中对开发新产品涉及的决策环境进行了较详细的结构化分析，并相继产生结构化情景图（或模型）和关联图。原型基于知识系统就是建立在这些结构化图（或模型）的基础上。原型系统可为用户就所开发新产品从诸种可能推荐方案中作出某一种建议。所述系统为减少风险作出新产品战略选择，提供了一个很好的工具。

篢his paper describes a knowledge- based system for develo ping new product. The purpose ofthis KBS is to assist the entrepreneur or user in determining whether or nottocommit resources to entering into a new product venture. The paper describes in detail the structured analysis done in modelling the decision situa- tion involeved in developing a new product．The structured situation diagrams (or models) and the dependency diagrams are created. The prototype knowledge- based system is built on these diagrams or models．The systemrecommends one of several possible alternatives to user involved in developing a new prod- uct innovation. The system is a good tool that minimizes the user、risk in making a decision aboutnew product strategy selection.