摘要
２０００年中国汽车保有量与我国石油需求量密切相关，本文提出一种国际类比预测方法，即根据汽车保有量与人均ＧＮＰ之间，存在的普遍规律，预测２０００年中国汽车保有量。计算结果说明这种预测方法和模型是合理的、有效的，预测结果对我国能源需求预测有重要意义。
篜ossession quantity of automobiles in China in 2000 years is closely related tothe demand quantity of oil in our country．A method of international analogy for fore-casting is advanced in this paper．That is to say，this method forecasts possession quantityof automobiles in China according to existent universal law between the possession quanti-ty of automobiles and per capita GN P in the country．Computing result shows that thisforecasting method and model are reasonable and effective. Forecasting result is momen-tous significance for the forecasting of energy resources demand in our contry.
基金
能源部资助项目
关键词
中国汽车保有量
预测
模型
研究
：possession quantity of automobiles in China，forecast，model，study
