海湾战争后中东政治格局的基本特征

BASIC FEATURES OF THE POLITICAL PATTERN OF MIDDLE EAST AFTER THE GULF WAR

海湾战争是冷战后世界发生的第一场局部战争。它是中东力量严重失衡的产物,又导致了中东力量的进一步失衡。海湾战争、苏联解体,使中东政治格局发生了二次大战结束以来最令人瞩目的变化。为了认识这一变化的深刻性,有必要回顾战后中东格局的历史演变。

The Gulf war is the first local war that has taken place in the post-cold- -war world. It is the outcome of a serious imbalance between rivalling forces in the Middle East, and leads in turn to a further imbalance between them. The Gulf war and the disintegration of Soviet Union have brought about a most dramatic change since the end of world war Ⅱ in the political pattern of Middle East. After the Gulf war, the political pattern of Middle East is characterized with the following basic features: (1) the U. S. has gained a leading position in the Middle East and is bttilding energetically a new political pattern of Middle East under its leadership, while being con- fronted with a lot of conflicts which make it difficult for the U.S.to dominate the Middle East exclusively, (2) While the problem of the already existing hot spots is yet unsolved, the new wrangling of rivalling powers is rising in response to the situation; this will make the regional situation remain in the throes of turbulence; (3) The convencing of the Middle East peace talk, which has been brought about by the U. S. single-handedly, indicates that Arab-Israeli conflict has entered a new stage of comprehensive negotia- tion,but the prospect of the peace talk allows of no optimism,with the Arab- Israeli conflict going to remain a factor of importance which will influence the future political pattern of Middle East.