冷战后的中东——战略格局变化与前景分析

MIDDLE EAST IN POST-COLD WAR ERA——THE CHANGE OF STRATEGIC PATTERN AND ITS PERSPECTIVE

在20世纪接近尾声的时候,人们明智地抛弃了冷战。曾几何时,人们一度确信一个充满和平、民主和繁荣的新世界就要诞生了。然而,国际政治现实表明,冷战后的世界更不安宁,更不稳定。冷战后的世界有两个突出特征:格局失衡、冲突迭起;经济衰退,复苏乏力。 首先,毫无疑问,冷战的终结揭开了酝酿已久的地区冲突的“潘朵拉盒子”

The collapse of the Soviet Union led to the end of the Cold War and the open of the 'Pandora Box' and it also ended the conflict between thetwo superpowers. In Middle East,the situation is more intricate after the Cold War era.The peaceful factors and unstable factors are growing at the same time. Onthe one hand, for the parties cancexned, they have no other alternative butthe negotiating table. Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rubin has raised theprospect of a total Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, fuelling agrowing debate over the price he is willing to pay for peace with Syria.Butobstacles exist: the Palestinians want an total end to Israel's occupation ofthe Gaza Strip and West Bank, but Israel gives nothing but autonomy, onthe other hand Iran now is seen as a big threat to U. S. interests through-out the region after a pro-American authoritarian leader was swept away byan Islamic government thirteen years ago. Algeria where the army steppedin at the last minute to prevent Islamic radica from winning power in an election is still in tormoil today. Washington's key Arab allies now arethreatened by Islamic fundamentalists hostile both to U. S. interests andWestern values. The Clinton Doctrine gives a very high priority to human rights and de-mocratization, but now this administration is grappling with the dilemma ofapplying its passion for democracy and human rights to the troubled MiddleEast. The Clinton Doctrine hopes the Middle Eastern countres to go bothtoward more political participation (pluralism) and privatization, but that'seasier said than done.