当前西欧经济衰退浅析

Elementary Analysis of the Present Economic Recession in Western Europe

西欧经济经历8年持续增长之后,于1990年年中开始发生变化。先是部分国家出现经济衰退,到1992年下半年逐渐蔓延至全西欧。目前,大多数国家的经济衰退仍在继续发展,它对西欧的一体化进程、各国政局以及对外经济关系,业已产生深远的影响。一、衰退的实质 80年代末期,西欧报刊舆论鉴于西方世界经济“繁荣”持续多年,曾就“西欧经济衰退是否消失了”的问题议论纷纷,一度认为经济周期似乎不灵了。90年代初爆发的西欧经济衰退,恰好是对这种“衰退消失论”的否定。

In the present economic recession in Western Europe starting from the early 1990s, although the range of production drop is smaller than that in the two recessions respectively in the 1970s and the 1980s, the gravity of the economic recession lies in the fact that it is interwoven with financial and monetary crisis, meanwhile the structural problems became increasingly visible, which prolonged the period of slump. The present recession disturbed the process of European integration, weakened the positions of the ruling parties in some major West European countries, encouraged the violent events characterized by nationalism and exclusivisrn in Western Europe, and further aggravated the economic frictions between Europe and America. Under the present circum- stances, the economic recovery in Western Europe will not start until the end of next year. It is predicted that West European economy will resume a momentum of faster growth from 1995 to reach the annual average rate of 3%.