日本政局探析

Exploratory Analysis of Japanese Political Situation

在7月18日举行的日本第40届众议院选举中,执政的自民党未能取得过半数议席,接着又在8月6日国会临时会议进行的首相选举中失利,被迫沦为在野党。这是日本政治史上的一件大事,标志着冷战后日本政坛正在进行新的分化组合。一、自民党下野当属顺理成章之事自1955年日本自由党与民主党合并成自由民主党以来,它一直在众议院和参议院拥有超过半数的优势地位,从而形成一党长期单独执政的局面。1955年—1975年这段时间里,自民党势力达到了“如日中天”的颠峰状态。一直在国会控制着稳定的多数。

The LDP's defeat in the general election and the establishment of the Hosokawa cabinet mark a new division and combination of the political forces in Japan's political arena. Within the new cabinet itself exist three factions of political forces: left, middle and right. Although these political forces join hands in their grand goal to overthrow the LDP's rule, they are divided in policy orientations. Their differences in policy will be the biggest destabilizing factor confronting the Hosokawa cabinet. After an interim period, with the powerful conservative forces being to assimilate the innovative forces already in decline, Japan's 'multi-polar politics' will gradually evolve into a new political pattern in which the two main conservative forces will play the role of a nucleus in taking offices in turn under support of other forces.