南非同津巴布韦政治解决诸因素比较

SOUTH AFRICA AND ZIMBABWE: A COMPARISON OF FACTORS IN POLITICAL SETTLEMENT

独立前的津巴布韦(1965年前称南罗得西亚、后称罗得西亚)同南非有近似的历史背景与经济基础;两国的白人移民不仅取得了政权,而且建立了部类齐全的工矿农业体系,从而垄断了经济命脉;

South Africa and Zimbabwe share a similar historical background and economic base. But the internal and external factors for their respective political settlement are quite different. Exterally, the most dramatic changes are the withdrawal of the SovietUnion and Cuba militarily from Southern Africa and the obvious effect ofthe economic sanction against South Africa by the West. Yet in settling theSouth African issue, there are no such powerful restricting forces as SouthAfrica against Rhodesia or as the front-line countries against theZimbabwean Blacks. Internally, the South African whites are far stronger than the Zimbabw-ean whites politicaliy, economically and militarilly, and there is a powerfulrightist white group outside the South African government; the armedstruggle of the South African Blacks can not be compared with that wagedpreviously in Zimbabwe, but the political struggle of the former is sowidespread and deep-going that it has become the most important force forthe reform of governmen. Now the possibility for South Africa to reach a polilical settlement is becoming greater, but the South African Blacks might have to make more concessions than the Zimbabwean Blacks: a multi-racial rule instead of ablack majority rule as that in Zimbabwe is likely to emerge in South Africa.