我国对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析

An Empirical Study on The Relationship between External Trade and Economic Growth in China

采用协整检验与VAR模型的Granger因果关系检验的方法,分析了中国对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系。研究表明,对外贸易与经济增长存在长期的稳定关系,出口与进口以及经济增长存在单向的因果关系。因此,中国经济增长还是处于出口导向型的经济增长,同时在加大出口的同时,要重视进口的作用。

The relationship between external trade and economic growth in China is analysed by applying co-integration analytical tools and Granger causality - VAR model. The conclusion indicates that the relationship between external trade and economic growth keeps steady, and there is only single-direction causality existing between export and GDP or between import and export. Economic growth in China is an export-oriented growth, therefore, the export trade must be strengthened, at the same time, import trade should not be ignored.