摘要
美国现任总统罗纳德·里根将于1989年1月任满离职。里根是60年代以来美国唯一任满两届任期的总统,也是一位比较全面进行保守主义政治变革的总统。七年来他所执行的被称为“里根革命”的保守主义政策已取得了较大的成功,同时也给美国带来了严重的经济和社会问题。随着1988年总统大选的展开,美国朝野都在议论里根离任后美国政局将会怎样发展的问题。有一些人认为里根时代已经终结,自由主义思潮已经重新抬头,随着里根离任,里根政府的一切影响都将消失,就是说保守主义将被自由主义取代;另一些人则认为里根时代不会结束,里根执行的所谓“里根革命”的基本政策,不管哪一个党的政府上台都将继续下去。这些看法都有一定的道理,也都有所偏颇。从里根当选总统的历史背景和里根执政以来美国政局的发展以及内外形势来看。
The current US president Ronald Reagan's term of office is due to expire in January 1989. Judging from the development of the international current affairs and the US political situation in the 1980's, the post-Reagan's US political situation will, in a certain period, continue to adjust toward the direction of moderate conservative trend on the basis of the conservative guideline which Reagan is now carrying out. The main reasons arc: (1) The election of Mr. Reagan, the conservative representative of the US Republican Party, to the presidency in 1980 and his implementation of the conservative administration guideline are not accidental; (2) Reagan's conservative policy has resulted in greater success in extricating the US from economic inflation and reinforcing his position of strength, thus winning the appreciation of monopoly capitalists and most voters' support; (3) The voter's emotion may change somewhat, but the conservative currents still hold dominant position; (4) Both the Democrats and Republicans are nearly evenly matched with the rise of strength and influence of the middlc-of-the roaders in the Democrats themselves, the policy of the Democratic Party is shifting towards conservatism, while the moderate conservatives in Republican Party are gaining power and influence as well; (5)Since 1960, the balance of forces of the various financial groups has undergone some changes, the power and influence of the local financial groups in the West and South have reinforced, while the East financial groups have relatively weakened, and the Federal power is shifting westward.
