从拷贝使用率看电影市场供求

Supply and Demand in Movie Market Seen From the Utilization Ratio of Copy

本文运用数理统计中的正态分布原理,对目前电影发行放映的拷贝使用率提出了一套测算方法,并将这种方法与电影市场的供求平衡结合起来。通过对某省的案例分析,探讨了如何用拷贝使用率来考察发行业观众预测的准确性,澄清了目前在电影界对拷贝平均使用率的一些不正确看法,为电影经济体制改革进行了有益的尝试。

Based on the principle of normal distribution in mathematical statistics, this article puts forward a calculation method for the utilization ratio of the copies of movies shown and, by compining this method with the balancing of supply and demands of movie market in the case analysis of a certain province, studies the issue of how to use the utilization ratio of the copy to test the accuracy of forecasting audience. This article, by thus clearing the certain erroneous views currently held over the average utilization ratio of copy in the moviedom, constitutes a helpful attempt for the reforming of economic structure in the movie industry.