摘要
本文所说的南亚包括印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、不丹、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫等。它北起喜马拉雅山、东濒孟加拉湾、西傍阿拉伯海、南临印度洋,是欧亚大陆外沿新月形地带的中央部分。从地理上说,南亚连接中东和东南亚,靠近海湾产油区和印度洋运输通道,战略地位十分重要。
Viewed from the panorama of Eurasia, the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific, one can discern a gradual rise in status of South Asian subcontinent in the current global strategic pattern since World War Ⅱ. In early postwar years, the United States knocked together a perimeter of encirclement against the Soviet Union. However, by the late seventies, this chain of encirclement broke down against the backdrop of a surging movement for national liberation throughout Asia and Africa and the concomitant decline of US influence in this vast area. Seizing this golden opportunity, Moscow lost no time in launching its 'southward thrust'. One should not, however, lose sight of the other side of the coin. All Sonth Asian countries have inherited a valuable anti-imperialist, anti-colonial tradition, with India as an active participant in the Bangdong Conference, non-aligned movement and South-South cooperation, whereas Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and other nations have all along taken a positive attitude in the current international struggle against hegemonism. In South Asia, a framework of unity and cooperation has to date failed to take shape due to some intra-regional divisive tendencies. However, since the Soviet invasion of Afganistan, a trend for regional cooperation began to appear on the horizon, the success of which will be conditioned by many factors, with the attitude of India the chief one among them. The extra-ordinary character of India-Soviet relations makes prediction of possible directions of its development one of the main tasks confronting observers of changing trends in South Asian strategic posture, whereas the US will continue to check the Soviet 'southward thrust' and to restore its previous influence in the South Asian subcontinent. Under such circumstances, the contention of Washington and Moscow in this region is expected to intensify in the foreseeable future, while contacts and cooperation among South Asian nations will somewhat increase, yet it looks unlikely that this trend could turn into a common st ategie entity in a short span of time.
