摘要
美国战后历时最长、最深刻的1979—1982年经济危机,于前年底渡过其谷底,进入了一次新的周期性经济回升。迄今,回升已持续一年多。从一年多来经济回升的具体情况来看,在工业生产的回升速度等方面接近五、六十年代的水平,是比较正常的回升,但在固定资本投资的增长幅度等另一些方面并未达到五、六十年代的水平。当前。
Since late 1982, US economy began to register a new cyclical recovery, the earlier stage of which is of normal strength judging from its following the expansion laws of past economic recoveries and its actual performance. At present, US economy has entered the peak period of the current economic cycle which may persist for a certain time with possibly a fairly big expansion. Favourable factors for this pediction are: first, the contradiction between production and market has lessened to a considerable degree because of the long duration and huge destructive effects of the recent economic eisis; second, inflation has been partially bought under control; third, oil prices are stable; fourth, a wave of new scientific-technological revolution is gradually taking shape; fifth, military expenditures have skyrocketed. However, US economic recovery also faces some disadvantages: the 'five highs' (high fiscal defieit, high inte est rates, high exchange rates, high trade deficit and high unemployment) though exercising no great immediate impact on cuent short-tem recovery, are nevertheless potential threats constraining long-term economic expansion. Moreove, US economy's structual troubles still remain, the growth rate of fixed capital investment still lags behind that in the fifties and sixtics. Furthermore, current recovery is but a cyclical development occuring at a time when the Western capitalist world as a whole is still in the throes of struggling with stagflation. Hence the current recovery would be a limited one. It would be far-fetching to take too rosy a view of short-term US economic situation.
