1955-2011年兰州沙尘暴、浮尘天气事件发生概率的Markov模型研究

The Probability of Occurrence of Dust Storm and Dust-Floating Weather Events based on the Markov Model in Lanzhou Region during 1955-2011

依据甘肃兰州市1955-2010年沙尘暴、浮尘天气事件年变化资料,划分年强度分级,应用Markov模型对其不同强度发生概率进行分析,在此基础上预测和检验了2011年兰州沙尘暴浮尘天气事件的发生概率.结果显示:2011年沙尘暴发生的特强年、强烈年、强发生年、一般发生年和少发年的概率为[0.022,0.00,0.044,0.044,0.888],而事实上2011年发生沙尘暴0次,属于少发年,符合预测结果;2011年浮尘天气发生的特强年、强烈年、强发生年、一般发生年和少发年的概率为[0.20,0.1,0.00,0.30,0.40],而事实上2011年发生浮尘9次,介于平常年和少发年范围,符合预测结果.随着时间序列的延长,Markov模型可成为短期沙尘暴浮尘天气变化预测的有效途径.

Based on the data of dust storms and dust-floating weather events in the Lanzhou City,Gansu Province during 1955-2010,we build the classification of the intensity of dust storms and dust-floating weather events,we employed the Markov model to studied the probability of occurrence of different intensity of dust storms and dust-floating weather events,and forecast and testing the probability of occurrence of the weather events in 2011 in Lanzhou.The results show: the probability of occurrence of dust storm with very strong years,strong years,less strong years,general years,lower years were [0.022,0.00,0.044,0.044,0.888].in 2011 in Lanzhou.In fact,Lanzhou dust storm event is not happen in 2011,to belong lower years,the forecast result has confirmed.For dust-floating weather event in 2011,the probability of occurrence of dust-floating weather events with very strong years,strong years,less strong years,general years,lower years were [0.20,0.1,0.00,0.30,0.40],and in fact the 2011,there are 9 dust-floating weather events,to belong intensity of between general years and lower years less,in line with the predicted results.With extension of the data series,Markov model will be an effective way of short-term sandstorm dust weather forecast.