经济运行效率越高抗衡成本型通货膨胀的能力越强吗?——基于中国省级工业面板数据的分位数回归研究

Can Higher Economic Operating Efficiency Bring Stronger Ability to Compete with Cost-driven Inflation?Quantile Regression Study on China's Provincial Industrial Data from 2007 to 2011

针对2007—2011年中国出现的新一轮结构不平衡且伴随产能过剩特征的成本型通货膨胀,利用分位数回归方法和30个省市工业经济的面板数据,实证检验了"经济运行效率越高,抗衡通货膨胀的能力越强"的假设命题。结果表明,工业运行效率较高的省市对成本推动型通货膨胀表现出良好的抗衡能力。总体而言,受政府垄断管制较少、民营化程度较高、外贸依存度较低、技术创新能力较强的省市,工业经济运行效率遭受通货膨胀冲击的负面影响相对较小。该结论为当前中国工业经济实体依靠提升效率来克服成本高企、外需低迷的运营困难提供了理论依据。

In view of new cost-push inflation characterized by non-balanced structure and over-capacity in 2007-2011, this article empirically tests the assumption about 'the higher the economic operation efficiency, the stronger the ability to compete with inflation' by use of quantile regression method and industrial panel data of China′s 30 provinces. The results indicates that those provinces with high industrial operating efficiency appear good ability to compete with cost-push inflation. Overall, those provinces with less government regulation, higher privatization, lower foreign trade dependence, and stronger technical innovation ability, relatively suffer minimum negative impact from the cost-driven inflation shocks. This conclusion provides a theoretical basis for current industrial entities to overcome high cost and low external demand difficulties through improving efficiency.