出口技术结构测度及其影响因素——基于省际面板数据的研究

Measurement and Influence Factors of Technological Structure of Exports:Based on Provincial Panel Data

采用2002—2008中国大陆29个省份的面板数据,利用显示技术附加值原理,在剔除各类产品加工贸易后测算各省出口复杂度。基于此,建立出口技术复杂度的决定方程,先后采用静态面板和动态GMM方法,分析影响出口技术结构的因素。结果表明,资本劳动比、研发投入、贸易开放度以及基础设施显著地促进了出口复杂度的提高;人力资本分别与研发投入和FDI的交叉项显著为正;自然资源禀赋对出口复杂度的作用显著为负,表明自然资源禀赋的"诅咒"效应也存在于出口技术复杂度中,加强基础设施建设有助于减少自然资源禀赋对出口复杂度的负作用。

This paper employs index of revealed technological value-added to get the export sophistication of China after elimination of processing trade in every category of product based on the panel data of twenty-nine provinces in China. Then the econometric model is established and the methods of static panel and dynamic GMM are adopted successively to analyze the influence factors of export sophistication in order to overcome the endogenous problems. The research shows that the ratios of capital and labor, R&D, trade openness and infrastructure have dramatically positive effect on export sophistication. The cross terms of human capital with R&D and FDI respectively are remarkably positive. The natural resources endowment is negatively related to export sophistication, which indicates the cursing effect still exists in the export sophistication. However, the improvement of infrastructure is helpful to decrease the negative effect of natural resources on export sophistication.