要素相对价格对产业结构调整的倒逼效应分析——基于省际动态面板数据的系统GMM估计

Reverse Transmission of Relative Factor Price on Industrial Structure Adjustment:On System GMM Test of Inter-provincial Panel Data

结合新结构经济学和新经济地理学相关理论,从企业和劳动力的角度分析要素相对价格对产业结构调整的倒逼效应,利用1997—2010年省际面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计(System GMM)就可流动要素价格(工资)和不可流动要素价格(房价)对产业结构的影响进行实证分析。研究发现:相对房价与第二产业就业和产出呈倒U型关系,与第三产业就业和产出则显著正相关,即过高的房价会对第二产业造成挤出效应,抑制其就业和产出,相对工资同二三产业就业和产出则呈线性关系,房价和工资的共同作用导致区域产业结构调整。因此,各地区应根据自身特征制定合理的产业发展战略和吸引高素质人才流入的工资及住房政策。

Combined with New Structural Economics and New Economic Geography,this paper analyzes reversed transmission of relative factor price on industrial structure adjustment from the perspective of enterprise and labor. Using inter-provincial data of 1997—2010,it makes an empirical analysis on the effect of mobile element( housing price) and immobile element price( wage) on industrial structure adjustment with the System GMM Estimation( System GMM) method. It has found that relative housing prices and employment and output of second industry present reverses U type,and it is significantly correlated with tertiary industry employment and output,namely,the exorbitant housing price causes crowding-out effect,inhibits its employment and output,which leads to adjustment of regional industrial structure. Each region should make reasonable industrial policy according to its ow n characteristics and formulate reasonable housing policy to attract high-quality personnel.