全球价值链视角下中国嵌入制造环节的经济碳排放效应研究

The Study on Economic Carbon Emissions Effect of China's Embedding in the Manufacturing Sector under Global Value Chain Perspective

采用中国大陆29个省份2002—2010年的面板数据,对中国嵌入全球价值链制造环节与经济碳排放之间的因果关系及五大分解效应进行空间计量分析。结果显示:中国存在从嵌入全球价值链制造环节到经济碳排放的单向格兰杰因果关系,嵌入全球价值链制造环节的程度越高越会增加碳排放量,这主要是由中国整体上仍处于全球价值链分工模式的低端制造环节所引起的。中国嵌入全球价值链制造环节所引致的间接规模效应、结构效应及技术效应存在显著的空间差异性,而碳排放效应的分解模型表明技术效应对经济碳排放的抑制作用最大,规模效应其次,全球价值链效应仅次于规模效应和技术效应,是决定经济低碳转型能否成功的主要变量,结构效应较为复杂,环境规制效应则存在一定的局限性。

This paper uses the 2002- 2010 panel data of China's 29 provinces to make a spatial econometric analysis of five decomposition effects and the causal relationship betw een China's embedding in the manufacturing sector of global value chain and economic carbon emissions. The results show that,there exists one-w ay Granger causal relation from China' s embedding in the manufacturing sector of global value chain to economy carbon emissions,and the higher the degree is,the higher level of carbon emissions the economy emits,w hich must be related to a fact that w e are still at the low-end manufacturing sector of global value chain. There exists significant spatial difference betw een the indirect scale effect,structure effect and technical effect caused by China's embedding in the manufacturing sector of global value chain,and decomposition model of carbon emissions effect indicates that the technical effect plays the largest role of inhabiting economic carbon emissions,follow ed by the scale effect. After the technical effect and the scale effect is the effect of global value chain,w hich is the main variable of determining w hether to successfully realize the economic low- carbon transition. The structrue effect is more complex,and the environmental regulation effect has certain limitation.