基于地统计的江苏省人口分布的最优估计研究

Study on Optimal Estimate of Population Distribution of Jiangsu Province Based on Geostatistics

为了寻求一种人口分布的最优估计模型,提高人口分布的拟合效果,文章以2000年第五次人口普查和2010年第六次人口普查数据为基础,以ArcGIS强大的空间分析功能为依托,采用不同的地统计分析模型对江苏省两次普查的人口密度数据进行探索性数据分析,并从中选择最优模型进行克里格插值。结果表明,两次普查间江苏省人口分布整体格局变化不大,但呈现出各地区的整体密度不断增大、空间分布"两极分化"、人口分布重心逐渐南移等特征。

In order to get the best model of spatial optimal estimation for population distribution,geostatistics is used to improve the fitting effects of population distribution in Jiangsu province.Based on the data of the fifth census in 2000 and the sixth census in 2010 and with the aid of spatial analysis toolbox of ArcGIS,six geostatistics models were put up by the use of exploratory data analysis method.By comparing the results of curve fitting for variogram and its testing,the optimization model is selected.And Kriging interpolation is carried out with the optimization model.The results show that during2000-2010,there is little change in the global pattern of population distribution in Jiangsu province,but it reveals that each region is characterized by constant growing of integral population density,spatial distribution polarization and orthocenter gradually southernward and so on.