江汉平原水资源可持续利用评价

Evaluation of Sustainable Utilization of Water Resource in Jianghan Plain

水资源系统是一个涉及自然环境、经济和社会组成的复杂系统。为了研究江汉平原水资源可持续利用的状况,通过对江汉平原水资源影响因素和供需情况的分析,建立相应的评价指标体系及等级评价模型,将众多的评价指标转化为单个综合指标,反映江汉平原水资源可持续利用的程度。通过对所收集的指标数据用SPSS软件进行预测,结果表明,江汉平原水资源2020年的可持续系数是1.017 3,即从2010年起每年以1.7%的速度增长,表明江汉平原水资源有较大的发展潜力,但部分区域仍存在不稳定因素。因此,应当采取相应的措施,加大对江汉平原水资源的保护力度,使江汉平原水资源不断向着可持续的方向发展。

Water resources system is a complex giant system involving natural environment,economy and society.The influence factors and the supply and demand situation of the water resources in Jianghan plain were analyzed,then the models of corresponding evaluation index system and the rank appraisal were established and many of the evaluation indexes were translated into a single composite index to study the sustainable utilization situation of the water resources in Jianghan plain.The sustainability coefficient of the water resources in Jianghan plain was 1.017 3 from 2010 to 2020 years,and it increased by 1.7% every year,predicted by SPSS through the index data collected.These results indicated that the water resources in Jianghan plain had great development potential,but in some regions,the instability factors still existed.Therefore,the corresponding measures should be taken to protect the water resources,which could make the water resources in Jianghan plain develop toward the direction of sustainability.