房地产需求冲击对价格和交易量的影响研究——兼论价量和谐的宏观调控政策

On the Influence of Real Estate's Demand Shock over Price and Volume: Also Discussion of Macro-regulation Policy on Harmony of Price and Volume

以打压价格为目标、罔顾成交量变化的房地产调控政策极易损害房地产市场的健康。以城镇人口人均可支配收入(DI)、商业银行利率(RR)和城镇人口数量(P)作为房地产需求的代理变量,建立VEC模型考察了房地产价格和成交量在房地产需求发生冲击时所作出的反应。研究结果表明:DI、RR和P的冲击可引起房地产价格或交易量的不同变化;同时,在同一种冲击下,房地产价格和交易量作出的反应亦存在显著差异。基于实现房地产降价和扩容的"价量和谐"的调控目标,提出了相关政策建议。

The real estate regulation policies which crack down on the price as the basic target and ignore the change of trading volume can damage the healthy development of real estate’s market easily.This paper uses the per capita disposable income of the urban population(DI),commercial bank interest rate(RR) and urban population(P) as agent variables of the real estate demand,establishes the VEC model to research.Results of this study show that the shock of DI,RR and P can cause the change of real estate’s price or trading volume in different ways;meanwhile,the reaction of real estate’s price and trading volume also has a significant difference when they face the same kind of impact.At last,this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions based on the realization of controlling targets,which are the decline of real estate and the expanding harmony of price and trading volume.