中国经济形势分析与预测——2013年秋季报告

Analysis and Forecast of Chinese Economy in 2013

2013年,在国际经济缓慢复苏,国内宏观调控坚持稳中求进、稳中有为、稳中提质的背景下,预计全年中国GDP增长7.7%,增速与上年持平,继续保持增长稳健、结构优化的发展态势。2014年,我国仍处于重要战略机遇期,十八届三中全会将就全面深化改革开放、推动体制机制创新做出新的部署,预计2014年中国GDP增长7.5%左右,将继续保持在经济运行的合理区间,中央政府将着力深化改革开放、推动结构调整和转型升级。中国经济已告别超高速增长期,进入稳中求进、提质增效的中高速增长新阶段。面对国内外瞬息万变的经济金融形势,做好2014年的经济工作,应继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,盘活存量、优化增量,着力提高财政资金使用效益,加大金融支持实体经济的力度,管住货币,搞活金融,控好风险。鉴于外部环境仍然具有许多不确定性,我国应继续实施扩大内需的战略。在稳中求进、提质增效的新阶段,既要增强宏观调控政策的针对性和协调性,使经济运行在合理区间,又要着力推动改革开放,推进改革创新,释放内需潜力、创新动力和市场活力,以期为未来持续发展奠定良好的基础。在此过程中,要把握好稳增长、调结构、促改革、防风险的平衡。

In 2013, with the effects of slowly recovery in international economy and gradually improvement in external demand, the new government of China payed more attention to the quality of growth. According to our forecast, China's GDP will increase by 7.7% in 2013, equal to that of the previous year, continue to maintain a steady growth. In 2014, China is still in the important period of strategic opportunities. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee will make new deployment on comprehensively deepening reform, promoting institutional innovation. According to our forecast, China's GDP growth in 2014 is expected to increase by around 7.5%. China will continue to maintain a steady growth and the government will focus on promoting structural upgrading and innovation. The economy of China has already bidden farewell to the rapidest growth period which will enter into the new phase of high- speed growth in the context of seeking improvement in stability, promoting the quality and strengthening efficiency. Facing the situation of the changing conditions constantly in domestic and overseas, the government will try best to arrange the economic work, including continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy for revitalizing the stock and optimizing the increment, to exert in enhancing the efficiency of financial funds usage and strengthening the financial support power on the substantial economy in order to controlling the currency, invigorating the finance and monitoring the risk. In view of various of uncertainty existed in the external environment, China should continue to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, that is, in the new phase of seeking improvement in stability, promoting the quality and strengthening efficiency, both to strengthen macro-control policies targeting and coordination for managing the economic operation at reasonable interval, but also focus on promoting the reform and opening-up, promoting reform and innovation, releasing the potential of domestic demand, invigorating the innovative impetus and the market vitality, in order to establishing the favourable foundation to the sustainable development in the future, meanwhile, to grasp the balance among stabilizing the growth, adjusting the structure, promoting the reform and preventing the risk.