2013年物价波动走势分析和2014年趋势预测

Analysis of Price's current feature in 2013 and future trend in 2014

2013年6月份以来,我国CPI呈现出缓慢上升的趋势,9月份CPI已达到3.1%,PPI也呈现出逐渐回升的态势。构建的物价合成指数和扩散指数显示,物价一致合成指数的谷底在2012年8月已经显现,其后震荡回升,但回升过程较为缓慢,先行合成指数的谷底出现在2012年6月,至今已连续上升20个月。物价先行合成指数相对于物价一致合成指数的峰平均先行期为8个月。预计未来我国物价水平仍将处于缓慢回升的过程,2013年CPI上涨2.7%,2014年为3.5%,PPI在2013年下降1.6%,2014年下降0.5%

CPI is in the trend of slow rising since June of 2013. CPI is 3.1% in September. PPI is also in the slow rising. The price composite t and diffusion indices indicate: the price coincident composite index's bottom appears in A ugust of 2012 and ascends slowly, which is a slow process; leading composite index's climax appears in June of 2012 and has been in a 20-month-rising-process. The price's leading composite index is leading coincident composite index by six months. The future price will be in a slow rising process. CPI in 2013 and 2014 will be 2.7% and 3.5%. PPI in 2013 and 2014 will be-1.6% and 1.5%