2013年人民币汇率的波动趋势、影响因素及政策建议分析

Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation Trend, Influencing Factors and Policy Suggestions In 2013

2013年人民币汇率表现出较强劲的升值态势,反映出中国相对稳健的经济增长和市场中的升值预期。但经济基本面分析表明,人民币汇率已失去大幅升值的基础。另一方面,受我国经济发展减速、美国退出量化宽松货币政策、世界经济运行不确定等因素的影响,人民币汇率在未来可能进入阶段性贬值通道或围绕目前水平宽幅震荡。在经济不确定性加强的环境下,我国央行需通过人民币国际化、利率市场化改革等,强化人民币汇率形成的市场基础。

RMB exchange rate shows strong trend of appreciation in 2013, which reflect relatively stable economic growth of China and the prediction of appreciation in foreign exchange rate market. But the analysis of Chinese economic variables shows that the RMB exchange rate has lost the basis of large appreciation. On the other hand, according to the lowering speed of Chinese economic growth, the expectation of US ending QE monetary policy and unclear prospect of world economic growth, RMB exchange rate might enter the periodic devaluation channel or fluctuate around the current level with wide range. Under the circumstances of economic uncertainties, the central bank should strengthen the market formation basis of RMB exchange rate, by RMB internationalization and reform of interest rate.