2013年我国工业经济景气形势分析及政策建议

Analysis of Operation Situation of Chinese Industry in 2013 and Policy Suggestions

从2012年8月份开始,我国工业一致合成指数结束持续长达31个月的下滑态势,呈现逐月回升局面,回升态势一直持续至2013年8月,并且根据先行合成指数的走势和平均超前期计算,直至2013年12月我国工业经济的景气上升态势都不会改变。进一步观察我国工业及相关领域主要经济指标可以发现我国工业经济本轮的景气波动具有如下特点:(1)工业生产增速总体平稳,产业结构调整积极推进;(2)企业效益呈恢复性回升态势,但企业特别是小、微企业的生产经营困难依然较大(;3)内需拉动作用增强,外需不振影响程度加深。

Based on the the trend of coincident indicators of Chinese industry, We find that the decline of Chinese industrial economy in early 2010 continued until July 2012, and Chinese industry presented a slight upward trend from 2012 August. According to trend and average leading periods of the leading indicator of Chinese industry, we ifnd that the upward trend of Chinese industry will at least continue to December 2013. Further, based on the change characteristics of Chinese industrial major indicators, we ifnd that the features of Chinese industrial current lfuctuation are as follows:(1) The production growth rate of Chinese industry was generally stable, at the same time, the industrial restructuring was vigorously promoted;(2) The economic beneifts of industrial enterprises was restorative, but enterprises, especially small and micro enterprises still have large production and management dififculties;(3) The promoting effect of domestic demand and the inhibiting effect of external demand on industrial economic growth was enhancing.