2013年我国电力行业运行特征分析与展望

Analysis and Outlook of Situation and Changes of structure of China Power Industry in 2013

2013年我国经济平稳增长,电力行业也保持了中速平稳增长态势。本文利用景气分析方法建立了电力行业景气指数,分析了我国电力行业的增长周期波动特征,得出结论:我国电力供给充足,电力供需总体平衡,全社会用电量和发电量稳步增长;燃料价格走低使得发电成本回落,电力行业利润大幅增加;新能源发电快速增长,电源结构得以优化。预计我国电力行业景气将继续保持回升态势。

With China’s economic growth keeps moderating steadily in 2013, China’s power industry maintains a trend of steady growth at medium speed. The paper constructs the business indexes of power industry of China using business analysis methods, and analyzes the business fluctuation characteristics of power industry of China. The paper concludes that:power supply is plentiful, the supply and demand keeps an overall balance, and both consumption and generation of electricity grow steadily;falls in fuel prices make the power generation costs down and power industry proifts increases substantially;with the rapid growth of new energy power generation, the power supply structure is optimized. It is estimated that the business of power industry will maintain rising.