基于不同数学模型的天水市人口规模预测

The Prediction of the Tianshui Population Scale Based on Different Mathematical Model

人口规模对于未来国家和地区经济的发展具有重要的意义.本文综合运用GM(1,1)灰色模型、Logis-tic模型、Malthus人口模型、对数模型四种数学模型,对天水市2020年—2030年人口规模进行预测,旨在为政府有关部门制定社会经济发展规划提供参考依据.结果表明:未来20年内,天水市总人口将继续处于稳定增长状态,年平均人口增长率8.01‰,到2020年,天水市总人口将达到402.71万,到2030年,总人口将达到437.49万人.

The prediction of population scale plays on important role for the development of national and regional economy.Using GM(1,1) grey model,Logistic model,Malthus population model,logarithmic model,the Tianshui’s population scale from 2020-2030 was predicted,it may provide a reference for social and economic development.The result show that population growth will be continuing at a stable state in twenty years,the average annual population growth rate is 8.01 per thousand,and in 2020,the total population will reach 4.0271 million,by 2030,the population will reach 4.3749 million.