人民币汇率下调原因及效应分析

Depreciation of RMB in Exchange Rate: Causes and Effects

一、人民币汇率下调的原因近些年来,我国人民币汇率连续下调.自1981年以来,10年间人民币汇率共进行了5次较大幅度的下调,从1980年12月31日的1美元合1.53元人民币调至1990年11月的1美元合5.22元人民币;到1991年6月28日,人民币汇率已降到1美元等于5.369元人民币.

(1) The underlying cause of the consecutive and significant depreciation of RMBin exchange rate lies in the fact that it has been overrated for a relatively longperiod of time. And the direct cause is the rise in domestic price. (2) The depreciation plays a positive role in increasing exports, restricting im-ports and improving the balance of payments. But it also has negative effects: thepressure on domestic money supply, the pressure of inflation and the burden offoreign debts. The effects of the depreciation are limited due to the incompleteness ofreform measures in China. The writers make a profound empirical study of the subjectwith the aid of statistic data. (3) In conclusion, RMB exchange rate will not be able to exert its role as atrue economic leverage until all the following reforms are accomplished: the furtherreform of the exchange rate system and the relevant reforms of the domestic pricestructure, enterprise structure, fiscal and financial structures and foreign trade struc-ture.