德国统一的前景及其影响

German Reunification:Prospect and Impact

自1989年11月9日“柏林墙”开放以来,两德走向统一的步伐快得惊人。积极主张统一的比德基督教民主联盟在今年3月18日大选中获胜,标志着两德的统一进程已“不可逆转”。当前,两德政府正在催马扬鞭,争取早日实现统一;作为二次大战战胜国的苏、美、英、法从它们的权利和责任以及各自的战略考虑出发,也都卷入了德国统一的进程。

The unification of Germany wasproposed long ago.As the unification of Germany involves the interests of the twoGermanies,the Soviet Union,the US,Britain and France etc.,and the foture patternsin Europe,the sides concerned are engaged in severe struggles on the unification of Ger-many,primarily including:(1)the struggle for the leadership of Europe among the USSR,the US and the EEC;(2)the struggle for their different purposes through the unifica-tion among the USSR,the US,Britain and France,and the FRG;(3)the one be-tween the ruling party and the opposition in the FRG on when and how the unificationof Germany should be completed.The current developments show that,by around 1992,the two Germanies are ex-pected to realize unification within the territory of present East and West Gcrmaniesand Berlin.The unification is probable to be complettd according to the 23rd clause ofWest Germany's Basic Law,i.e.,the five Lands of the GDR apply separatly for mem-bership of West Germany's Union.As to the military pion of the unified Germany,a compromise can be found,after all,through the talks in 2+4 meetings.The unification of two Germanies will exert an important effect not only on thechange of political relations and economic integration within the EEC,but also onthe dirtction of investment.It should be pointed out that the unification of Germanywill change the balance of power and upset the parity in Europe.To seek a new balance,all the forces in Europe will undergo disinte(?)ration,reorganization and realignment.Eu-rope will enter a new period of “grand détente with small turbulance” until new pat-terns are established.