现阶段世界经济的基本特点及其发展趋势

Present World Economy: Basic Features and Trends

自80年代初开始,世界经济进入了战后以来的第三个发展阶段,即继50、60年代的高速增长阶段和70年代的滞胀阶段之后,进入了一个调整阶段。一般认为,调整阶段将持续至本世纪末。作为这一新阶段开始的标志,是世界上各种不同类型的国家,普遍进行了带根本性、转折性的经济改革与调整。发达资本主义国家为医治滞胀顽症,在战后实行几十年凯恩斯主义的基础上,采纳了供应学派和货币主义学派的政策主张。

Since the 1980s, the world economy entered its third developing period after World War II, which is the period of adjustment. In the wake of the economic adjustments and reforms of fundamental and turning importance carried out by the countries of, different types, the deep changes of East-West relations shifting from confrontation towards detente in the sphere of international politics and the end of the cold war, the world economy displayed in its developing process a series of new features which are different from those of the former two developing periods. They are mainly: the economy of differently-typed countries developed in a low speed as well as in imbalance; economic internationalization advanced towards the new period of integration of the global economy; the tendancy of economic regionalization and organized cooperation developed rapidly; the core of the global economy began to shift to Asia-Pacific region; the world economic pattern has evolved further to be multi-polar. In the 1990s, the above-mentioned features in the world economy will develop continuously and tend to be ripe. In fact, these features can also be regarded as those of the global economy in the post-cold-war period, since the end of the cold war took place exactly during the mid-term of the period of adjustment. The world economy will enter a new period of development and prosperity by the end of this century and the beginning of next century, because it provided the ncccessary conditions for its own future development during its period of adjustment for about twenty years, and the end of the cold war brought about 'the peace bonus'.