东欧局势的变化对东西方关系的影响

The Impact of the Change of the East European Situation on East-West Relations

1989年,东欧国家局势发生了极为引人注目的变化,它给欧州现存的同盟体系以深刻影响,在一定程度上改变了欧州的政治结构,动摇了整个国际关系的中轴——雅尔塔体系。东欧国家的变化,其来之突然,其势之迅猛,使东西方国家在政策上和心理上都缺乏足够的准备。在形势突变的强大冲击下,苏东同盟体系赖以维系的三个纽带(经互会、华约、苏东国家的特殊友好关系)均受到损伤,如何维持这个体系,使东欧国家在开放中受益于西方国家经济的"输血",而又保持原有特殊关系,并进一步建设"欧州大厦",这是苏联领导人首要考虑的问题。另一方面,西方国家也面临不少新的严峻问题,东欧局势变化对美欧联盟及西欧一体化的发展也产生了不利影响。其中北约组织的作用、性质与两德统一等问题是美国与西欧国家首要考虑的问题。本文在对上述两个方面的问题作了分析之后,又进一步分析了由此而来东西方关系将向何处演变的问题。作者认为,从目前情况看,美苏出于不同的动机,都愿意在欧州保持两个德国两个联盟并存的局面。作者认为,尽管东欧变化惊人,但以北约和华约对峙而基础的欧安体制并未发生根本变化,—旦受到破坏,欧州未必能建立起一个"稳定的"新秩序。

L ast year saw the spectacular change in the situationof the Eastern Europe,which has exerted profound influence on the existingsystem of the Eastern and Western alliances,to some degree changed thepolitical structure in Europe and shaken the axle of the international relations--the Yalta system.The evolution in the Eastern Europe took place in such asudden and abrupt way that neither Eastern nor Western nation had adequatepreparation in policies and psychology.The strong shock waves from the suddenchange are rocking the three pillars supporting the East European alliance (theCouncil for Mutual Economic Assistance,the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet- East European special relationship).Therefore what the Soviet leaders takeinto first consideration now is how to hold together the system,how to havethe East European nations benefited from the economic'blood transfusion'from the Western nations at the same time to maintain the special relationshipand thus to build up the'European Home.'On the other hand,the Westernnations are also confronted with many new serious problems.The change in theEast European situation has produced unfavourable influence on the developmentof the U.S.—West European alliance and the West European integration.Thus the U.S.and the west European nations give first consideration to suchquestions as the function and nature of the NATO and German reunification.After anatomizing the two problems as mentioned above,the article analizesfurther the tendency of the change of West-East relations.The authorbelieves,according to the current situation,both the U.S.and the U.S.S.R.,though out of different motives,are willing to maintain the status quo ofthe co-existence of two Germanies and two alliances.The author points outalthough remarkable change has taken place in the Eastern Europe,there isno fundamental change happening in the European security system with theconfrontation of the NATO and Warsaw Pact as its basis.If the system isdamaged,Europe may not be able to establish a'steady'new order.