对竞技体育成绩预测方法的研究与分析

Study and Analysis on the Methods of Predicting the Competive Sports Result

成绩预测是竞技体育未来发展战略研究的重要内容之一。本研究以近10年世界男、女与中国男、女100米跑最好成绩的时间序列资料为例,对众多的常用预测方法进行对比分析,按预测值与实际值误差最小的原则,确定相应的最佳预测模型。根据竞技体育成绩以四年为周期的波动特点,计算周期指数,建立周期预测修正模型。并对我国竞技体育赶超世界先进水平的时间进行了预测,通过实例建立未来发展趋势模型,进一步提高预测的精确度和可靠性。

Predicting result is one of important contents of studying the developing strategy of competive sport. In this study,taking the recent ten years men's and women's the best results of 100 sprint in the world and China as an example, the predictivemethods in common use were compared and the best predictive model was established. The time that our country catch up with and surpass advanced world levels was predicted too.