摘要
文章根据 2 0 0 0年人口普查数据 ,运用人口预测软件对我国 2 0 0 0— 2 0 2 0年各级普通教育阶段在校生人数和教师需求量进行了预测 ,并对未来小学在校生的减少、初中在校生的波动、高中阶段和高等教育在校生的不断增加 ,以及由此引起对教师需求量的变化等提出了对策建议。
Based on the data from China Census 2000, this paper use the pop software and forecasts the school-age population, enrolled students, teachers required of different levels for the period from 2000-2020. Some issues, which may emerge in future such as the decrease of enrolled students in primary school, the fluctuation of the students in junior middle schools, and the increase of students in Senior high school and the institutions of higher education as well as the according requirements for teachers, are discussed and some suggestions are put forward.
出处
《南方人口》
CSSCI
2004年第2期13-20,共8页
South China Population
关键词
学龄人口
在校生
专任教师
预测
School-age Population, Enrolled Students, Full-time Teachers, Projection
