不确定条件下管理决策的认知特点和策略

Cognitive Characteristics and Strategies in Organizational Decision Making Under Uncertainty

不确定条件下管理决策的心理学研究,正成为决策心理学中引人注目的新领域。结合近几年所开展的管理决策研究,讨论了不确定条件下决策任务的心理学特点,分析了这类决策中常见的认知偏差和启发式,其中包括代表性、可取性、因果关系和锚定效应等。根据研究的结果,着重论述了不确定条件下管理决策的直觉式和分析式策略,以及决策知识表征系统和决策中的模式定向加工特征。还介绍和讨论了展望理论对于不确定条件下管理决策研究的意义,提出以决策认知技能训练和决策任务信息组合设计作为提高管理决策科学性的手段。

The psychological research on organizational decision making under uncertainty is becoming a noticeable new area of decision-making psychology. Based on some recent studies of organizational decision-making done in Hangzhou, the psychological characteristics of decision tasks under uncertainty were discussed. Some common cognitive biases and heuristics in those decision making were analysized, including representativeness, availability, causality and anchoring effect. Especially, the intuitive and analytic strategies in organizational decision making under uncertainty were discussed in relation to the representation systems of decision knowledge and the pattern-directed processing. The prospect theory and its implications to the organizational decision making were introduced. Some suggestions were given to use both cognitive skill training and decision information grouping as the means to increase the effectiveness of organizational decision making.