试论黄河下游北岸可能决口地段及其最大淹没范围

A STUDY ON THE SECTION OF POSSIBLE BREAKING LEVEE AND THE MAXIMUM FLOODED AREA OF THE NORTHERN LEVEE OF THE LOWER YELLOW RIVER

鉴于黄河的现状,作者认为黄河决口的潜在危险越来越大。推断北岸决口的可能性为大。根据溃坝原理,采用水力学方法对北岸决口的最大淹没范围作了模拟。指出若从沁河口—原阳段决堤,淹没面积约2.21万平方公里,从原阳—高村段决堤,则约为2.12万平方公里。

On the basis of the principle of dam-break, the possible flooded area has been simulated under the condition of the rare flood of the Lower Yellow River. It turns out that if the breaking levee takes place at the section of Yuanyang or Caogang, the flooded area borders on the northern levee of the Yellow River in the south upstream from Jinan, the northern levee of the Tuhai River downstream from Jinan; Majai River in the north downstream from Nanle, the upland of palaeochannel upstream from Nanle. The maximum flooded areas of different flood hydrographs are 22082 and 21190km2 respectively. The reasons why the result differs from that of other workers are the different analysis between the landforms and landscapes.Subsequently, it is suggested;1 ) Present flood protection project should further be perfected and fully used so that the stream patterns will be controlled and the channel of the main flow will be fixed.2 ) The investments to the possible flooded area should be decreased, first, to estimate the effect of the economy, secondly, to present the decision for effect resulted from possible levee-breaking.3) The older channel should be given up and the new one taken up. Digging a new river course will be the strategic decision to solve the levee-breaking of the lower Yellow River. It is mainlined that the course of the new river should be designed along the depression belt in the possible flooded area. There are four advantages for man-made new river: 1 ) The stream course is shorter.and the slope of the channel is biger; 2)The losses and the investments is less; 3 ) The new stream course has the capability for draining the maximum flood and 4) The construction of the preject is more convenient